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It is often said that most of our snow comes in the second half of winter. Here you can see some proof of that.
On average, we enter January with 2.4" of snowfall. In January that nearly tripples with n average of 7 inches. While the almanac shows a drop in February, the record was set just a few years ago.
In fact the top two years on record, also sho the top two months on record. Both set in the past two decades.
Check my new Snow Almanac and explore more..
Snowfall in Maryland Over The Last 30 years:
 Note the Hereford Zone (Northern Baltimore County) and Carroll County average almost 1 foot more snow than BWI. This is due to elevation close to 1000ft above sea level and being far enough away from the warming influence of the Chesapeake Bay. In fact, Westminster (hard to read red on purple shade) normaly would expect 36 inches compared to about 20 inches at BWI. Just around the Baltimore Beltway there is a large difference. Owings Mills can see about 10 inches more than Dundalk.
Click the image for a larger view.
Ice and snow Pack in Canada:
 During the autumn, I look at the build up of snow and ice cover to our north and west. This is the source of our cold air, and an important factor in developing many aspects of winter for us. This includes arctic outbreaks, thermal gradients along the polar front, and Alberta Clippers. Here you can see the latest coverage.
As of mid November, a promising size of real estate looks wintry. Most of the snow pack was due north of the Great Lakes and around Hudson Bay. The Canadian Plains looked warmer and lacked snow. That is actually the region of interst for us. continue to watch this area for more snow pack. On the bright side, much of western Canada and Alaska already look white.
La Nina Produces Wide Range of Predictions
The announcement of a developing La Nina was supposed to increase the Hurricane Season. Well, as we have seen, that was not necesarrilay the case. There are other factors at play, but this is one that also helps to disctate winters in the Northern Hemisphere. La Nina itself is just a shift of warm water in the Pacific Ocean back to Southeast Asia from it's El Nino postion. It is not a storm, but often has an impact on the storm track and jetstream in the US primarily during the winter. While there are a wide range of forecasts that have come out recently, it is important to keep in mind that La Nina's do add Pacific Tropical Energy into the winter pattern. The main question is how that pattern sets up. The precise position of the jetstream will determine who will be on the cold side, or the warm side. Often it can bring a mild pattern to much of the nation as NOAA has shown below. But early season ice storms are also common in the Southeast US. More on La Nina Page & El Nino/La Nina Animations
Links:
La Nina Winters in Baltimore Area You will note a lot of large storm have occured in these years. There were 15 storms over 10 inches in La Nina years NAO- North Atlantic Oscillation
NOAA (National Oceanagraphic and Atmospheric Administration) Click on the maps for their full forecast posted September 26, 2007.
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Winter Precipitation- NOAA |
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This outlook means that Maryland will have a slightly warmer than normal winter with no indication for abnormal precipitation.
Accuweather Forecast posted October 22, 2006. Go to Accuweather.com for more.
Winter Temps - ACCUWEATHER
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Winter Precipitation- ACCUWEATHER |
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This outlook means that Maryland will have about 3F degrees above normal winter with and active storm track. That means 75%-80% of narmal precipitation for Baltimore, but lots of Lake Effect Snow. The translation would be 15" to 20" of snow for Baltimore or lots of ice. Similar for us compared to NOAA, but look at the differnce in the Ohio Valley. I would watch the pattern develop during the week before and after Thanksgiving. An Ohio Valley storm track would support Accuweather's outlook.
The UKMET Office Forecast Posted October 2007
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Winter Precipitation- UKMET |
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The Almanacs Differ... but which one gets quoted more often???
The OLD Farmer's Almanac |
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Farmer's Almanac |
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The Hagerstown Almanac Outlook: Posted October 2007
Hagerstown Almanac debuted their winter outlook on our show. It does not bode well for snow lovers, but not too bad either. They are calling for near normal temperatures and snowfall. About what we have had last year. Most of which will come with two Nor'Easters in January.
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